1 Techniques

https://quantpedia.com/alternative-fair-value-models-for-currency-value-strategy/

Seasonality analysis

Keeping track of random terms on Investopedia

Examples are better than definitions

2 Average return

• SPY return -4.45% 2018 , 31.29% 2019 , 18.25% 2020
  • SPY 3-year average return is 15.0633%

3 T-distribution

• T-dist is a probability dist like a normal-dist but bigger tails
  • infinite degree of freedom result in T-dist = normal-dist
• smaller degree of freedoms imply bigger tails
• Can be useful to model returns with fat fails

4 Useless

Volume-Weighted Avg Price(VWAP): not useful, used by big funds to see if trade will affect price

5 Corporate terms